Global Market Outlook 2019-2023: 800 GW additional solar capacity by 2023 worldwide
SolarPower Europe (SPE) published the Global Market Outlook (GMO) Report 2019-2023, forecasting nearly 800 GW solar capacity additions by 2023 in the medium scenario. SPE forecasts for Italy an additional capacity of 9.6 GW by 2023 in the medium scenario. However, GSE data linked to the proposal of the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) forecast less than 5 GW additional capacity by 2023.
In 2018, a total of 102.4 GW solar capacity was installed at global level, exceeding the 100 GW level in one year for the first time. This was a growth of “only” 4% compared to 2017 (98.5 GW installed in 2017), but it was enough to outdo any other power generation technology last year. More solar PV was deployed than all fossil fuels and nuclear together. China was the strongest market in 2018 with 44.4 GW installed capacity (45% of the total installed capacity in 2018), although it showed a year-on-year decrease of 16% from the record additions of 52.8 GW and 53% growth in 2017, and installations of 34.5 GW in 2016 (128% growth). In 2018, 435 MW additional capacity was installed in Italy (equal to the 0.42% of global installed capacity in 2018). Puglia is the first Italian Region by installed PV capacity with 2.655 GW (13.2% of the total) at the end of 2018, followed by Lombardia with 2.303 GW (11.4% of the total) and Emilia-Romagna with 2.034 GW (10.1% of the total).
Evolution of the PV installed capacity in Italy 2009-2018 [GW]
Source: Elettricità Futura based on Terna data
According to the SPE GMO Report, the overall installed capacity in 2023 will be 1,044 GW in the low scenario and 1,610 GW in the high scenario. Whereas, the medium scenario forecasts 1,297 GW in 2023 at global level, hence an addition of nearly 800 GW compared to 2018 (509 GW total capacity was installed in 2018 worldwide). An additional capacity of 9.6 GW by 2023 is forecasted for Italy in the medium scenario, reaching an overall solar PV capacity of about 29.7 GW in 2023 (the overall installed capacity in 2018 was 20.1 GW according to Terna). Whereas, GSE data linked to the draft proposal of the Italian National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) indicate that the overall PV capacity by 2023 will be well below 25 GW (hence less that 5 GW additional capacity compared to 2018).
The draft Italian NECP forecasts about 50,9 GW overall solar capacity by 2030 (+31.2 GW compared to 2017). Whereas, Elettricità Futura considers this as an underestimated value (due to an overestimation of the average hours of yearly production) and believes that about 57.5 GW overall solar capacity (+37.8 GW compared to 2017) will be needed by 2030 to reach the 55.4% target (defined in the Italian NECP) of Renewable Energy Source (RES) share on the final gross electrical consumptions.
World total solar PV market scenarios 2019-2023 according to SolarPower Europe
Source: SolarPower Europe Global Market Outlook 2019-2023